By Chi Lo
The worry that China's aggressive rigidity will set off one other Asian difficulty is defective. This ebook dispels the myths at the back of the political rhetoric of the China monetary risk and identifies the true probability for Asia. Combining rigorous study, monetary common sense and real-world examples, traditional considering is debunked and the findings are irresistible.
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Additional resources for Phantom of the China Economic Threat: Shadow of the Next Asian Crisis
Skilled manufacturing labour has been in short supply since early 2002, and wages for skilled labour have been rising faster than overall economic growth since then. But the perceived shortage of unskilled labour is unprecedented. The root of the problem lies in the structure of the labour market. Given the abundance of young workers, most textile, toy and electronics manufacturers do not hire old rural workers. ln fact, they hire mostly young female workers. A Ministry of Labour study in 2004 found that some 75°/o ol' the factories surveyed hire only females between 18 and 26 years old.
That was why the subsistence wage was low and stagnant too. The farm sector suffered badly between 1996 and 2002, when China's economic growth fell sharply under former premier Zhu Rongji's austerity programme to fight inflation. Agricultural prices fell by an average of one-third during that period, as a result of weak domestic demand and rising agricultural yields. But what was a disaster for the farm sector had turned out to be a big boon to the export manufacturers, who enjoyed a combination of rapid overseas, especially US, market growth and cheap and flat wages at home.
But who knows, in ten years' time, China 30 20 15 -10 - surplus 1994 1995 1996 lj)- gs --20 deficit -30 -40 -50 -60 Figure 1:3 Source: CEIC China's trade balance with Asia 8 Phantom of the China Economic Threat may challenge the US as the largest continental market for Asia. As for Japan, while she consumed almost a quarter of Asia's exports a decade ago (down to lO'J11 now) and provided a third of the region's bank loans, China is taking over that economic role, buying over 30% of Asia's exports and is preparing to become a source of regional funding.
Phantom of the China Economic Threat: Shadow of the Next Asian Crisis by Chi Lo